Uncertainty Analysis in Systems Biology
speaker: Jens Timmer (University of Freiburg)abstract: In biology, typically, cellular processes as signal transduction, gene regulation and metabolism are presented by graphic cartoons which are static, qualitative, and descriptive. One goal of Systems Biology is to transform this presentations into dynamic, quantitative, and predictive mathematical models, typically ordinary di erential equations. To this aim, parameters of the di erential equations have to be estimated from time-resolved experimental data by minimizing some objective function. This comes with at least four types of uncertainties: (i) uncertainty about nding the global minimum, (ii) uncertainty of the estimated parameters due to uncertainty in the data, (iii) uncertainty of model predictions due to uncertainty of the estimated parameters, (iv) uncertainty about the model structure. We discuss reasons for and a simple procedure to deal with uncertainty (i), show how the pro le likelihood can deal with uncertainties (ii) and (iii), and will brie y touch uncertainty (iv).
timetable:
Wed 3 Oct, 10:30 - 11:45, Aula Dini
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