Simulating epidemics via the theory of dynamical systems
speaker: Giorgio Mantica (Università dell'Insubria)abstract: Since the original works of Daniel Bernoulli to the present day, systems of ordinary differential equations have been introduced to simulate the number of infected, recovered, and diseased individuals during an epidemic. In this approach, the health state of a single individual is only described as belonging to one of such categories. Firstly, I will describe a simple one-dimensional map that simulates the internal health dynamics of an individual as an evolving real variable. This system features many of the known behaviors in chaotic dynamics. Secondly, I will introduce a deterministic (not probabilistic) rule by which different individuals act upon each other when transmitting an infection: to achieve this goal, each single individual dynamical map is placed in a node in a complex network. The resulting full dynamical system is a coupled-maps network amenable to ergodic and complex systems analysis: I will show that a phase transition occurs, by which an initial contagion can affect a large size of a population
timetable:
Thu 23 Jun, 17:40 - 18:40, Aula Dini
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