Quantitative Modelling in the Social Sciences: Theory, history and applications

Members:

• Giacomo Bormetti (Quantitative methods in finance)
• Fulvio Corsi (Financial econometrics)
• Mariano Giaquinta – Scuola Normale Superiore (Mathematical analysis, history and philosophy of mathematics)
• Hykel Hosni – Scuola Normale Superiore (Uncertain reasoning, logic and decision theory)
• Stefano Marmi – Scuola Normale Superiore (Quantitative methods in finance, dynamical systems)
• Fabrizio Lillo – Scuola Normale Superiore (Quantitative methods in finance and financial microstructure)
• Massimo Mugnai – Scuola Normale Superiore (Philosophy and history of logic)

Research key-phrases:
probability, quantitative methods, reasoning under uncertainty, decision-making, logic, betting systems, rationality.

Aims:
The group tackles, from a multidisciplinary perspective, a set of problems related to the quantitative analysis in the social sciences. Our research combines methods and techniques from probability, decision theory, information theory, logic and statistics and puts them to work on a number of key questions, including

1. Reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty: Which norms should guide the quantification of uncertainty and how this leads to robust decision-making, both theoretically and in specific real-world applications;
2. The development of the mathematical theory of probability: How the analysis of the historical development of probability and statistics provides conceptual and methodological insights on modelling complex, real-world problems which require the quantification of uncertainty;
3. The mathematical analysis of gambling: how games of chance provide an important modelling test-bed for real-world applications of uncertainty quantification;
4. Behavioural foundations of decision theory and its application to the analysis of financial markets.

The group collaborates with a number of research groups at local, national and international level, including

• Quantitative Methods in Finance, Scuola Normale Superiore
• Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
• Managing severe uncertainty project, London School of Economics
• Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Università Bocconi, Milano

Research seminars and related teaching:
Group members cover a range of modules relevant to our research objectives. Details for the 2013/14 modules will be shortly available from this page.

Events:
Second Reasoning Club Workshop [http://reasoningclubpisa.weebly.com/], Scuola Normale Superiore,
17-19 June 2013.
Games and Decisions Workshop, Scuola Normale Superiore,
8-10 July 2013.
Summer school of mathematical methods in social sciences [http://www.crm.sns.it/event/276/], Scuola Normale Superiore,
16-20 September 2013.
Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics in Economics and Finance [http://www.crm.sns.it/event/282/],
2 - 6 December 2013.
XXV Meeting of the Italian Association for Logic and Applications [http://ailapisa2014.weebly.com/], Scuola Normale Superiore,
14-17 April 2014.

Background:
The group builds on the results of the research activities of the Logical Foundations of Rational Interaction Group (2009-10)