abstract: This talk will address the mathematics of non-equilibrium macroeconomics 5 and of its interaction with climate variability and climate change 1,2. First, I will review earlier work on endogenous business cycles (EnBCs) 5 and on how they affect the impact of natural catastrophes on the economy. Based on these previous findings, I will formulate an economic version of fluctuation–dissipation theory and show that it is supported by available data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 4. Finally, results on the synchronization of business cycles across the world will be presented 3.
References 1 Chavez, M., M. Ghil and J. Urrutia Fucugauchi, Eds., 2015: Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics, Geophysical Monograph 214, American Geophysical Union & Wiley, 438 pp. 2 Ghil, M., 2017: The wind-driven ocean circulation: Applying dynamical systems theory to a climate problem, Discr. Cont. Dyn. Syst. – A, 37(1), 189– 228, doi:10.3934dcds.2017008. 3 Groth, A., and M. Ghil, 2017: Synchronization of world economic activity, 27, 127002 (18 pp.), http:/dx.doi.org10.10631.5001820 . 4 Groth, A., P. Dumas, M. Ghil and S. Hallegatte, 2015: Impacts of natural disasters on a dynamic economy, Ch. 19 in Chavez et al. (Eds.), pp. 343–359. 5 Hallegatte, S., M. Ghil, P. Dumas, and J.-C. Hourcade, 2008: Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics, J. Economic Behavior & Organization, 67, 57–77, doi: 10.1016j.jebo.2007.05.001 .
VIDEO: the registration of the talk is available on Youtube.